Risk management planning on a volcanic island: fear and loathing in Ischia (Italy)

Abstract The volcanic island of Ischia (southern Italy) represents an interesting challenge as far as both risk analysis and risk management planning (RMP) go; hence, it is detailed here as a study case. We analysed the strengths and weaknesses of the emergency plans brought forward following the August 2017 earthquake, elaborating and revising scientific information, and involving researchers and experts with very different competences and backgrounds (e.g. engineers, architects, geologists, volcanologists, sociologists and information science experts). In particular, the historical evolution of the emergency plans prior to this event was recollected; the social context, on the basis of both literature and new statistical results, was analysed; and the guidelines proposed and/or implemented in other similar contexts in the world were examined. This work analyses and discusses the results, and proposes models that are universally applicable. Indeed, the key factors necessary for a 3E (Effective, Efficient and Effectual) RMP have been identified and described. These factors must characterize the RMP of the island of Ischia – and, in general, of any volcanic island – in order to be able to manage the occurrence of an emergency in the best possible way.