Platinum Shortage Threatens China's Hydrogen Ambition for Carbon Neutrality

Abstract Hydrogen is gaining tremendous traction in China as the fuel of the future to support the country’s carbon neutrality ambitions. The promising role of hydrogen for use as fuel is heavily reliant on platinum (Pt) and the interactions between hydrogen fuel industry and Pt supply constraints have been largely overlooked. In this research, we develop an integrated assessment model to explore China’s demand for hydrogen fuel and the associated Pt needs under different climate targets. The results indicate that China’s annual demand for hydrogen fuel would reach 20 million tons (mt) under the business-as-usual baseline scenario and 38 mt under the carbon-neutrality scenario until 2060, being 111–211 times the amount in 2020. This booming demand would lead China’s cumulative demand for Pt metal produced from virgin ore to reach 2,500-3,258 tons (cost of 86–112 billion USD), which is 38–50 times of China’s indigenous Pt reserve. Although reduction of Pt loading and enhanced recycling are identified as effective measures to alleviate the Pt supply constraint, their efforts alone are far from sufficient to fill the large demand-supply gap under both baseline and carbon-neutrality scenarios. Thus, joint efforts from global sustainable Pt sourcing as well as domestic material innovations are urgently needed so that China will be able to address Pt supply risks and achieve her hydrogen ambition towards carbon neutrality.