Leadership and Overconfidence

Expressions of confidence can give politicians credibility, earning them votes and public approval for decisions made in office. Such support is justified when the confidence displayed is truly a sign that a politician is competent. However, when politicians are overconfident, the result can be the election of incompetent leaders and the adoption of misguided policies. In this article, we discuss processes that can lead to a confidence “arms race” that encourages politicians to display more confidence than their rivals do, illustrate how overconfidence and hyperbole has impaired responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in many nations, and offer guidance for distinguishing politicians who display levels of confidence that reflect their true assessment of a situation from those who fake their self-assurance. We then suggest ways that aspiring leaders and incumbents can convey uncertainty honestly without losing credibility, and we propose a way to prevent overconfidence from resulting in ineffective or counterproductive legislation.