Applying Statistical Analysis and Economics Models to Unscramble the Depositional Signals from Chemical Proxies in Black Shales

The complex controls on the accumulation of organic-rich rocks remain elusive, despite their economic importance as source rocks and unconventional reservoirs, partially due to the multitude of factors that may impact production and preservation of organic matter in sediments. The complexity of Earth systems is comparable to the intricacies of Economics, and application of statistical and econometrics methods and models to analyze geological data may assist interpretation of the processes controlling organic burial. Chemical indices calculated for mudrock datasets from modern sediments and the Woodford Formation were used as proxies for detrital input, primary productivity, redox conditions, and upwelling, and a series of statistical analyses were run to test whether these methods were useful to discriminate different depositional conditions and establish the controls on total organic carbon (TOC) in the sediments. Model results showed that chemical proxies reliably predict not only TOC but also indicate correlations between indices. Our results suggest that detrital input, primary productivity and bottom-water anoxia are relevant drivers of organic content in the sediments, but the first two appear to have a more significant role in organic burial, illustrating the usefulness of these methods to assess depositional parameters in organic-rich rocks.