Calculation and scenario prediction of methane emissions from agricultural activities in China under the background of “carbon peak”

Abstract Climate warming has become a difficult problem all over the world. As the most important component of greenhouse gas, methane plays a vital role in the earth’s climate system. CH4MOD model and emission factor method are used in calculating and analyzing the methane emission from agricultural activities in China. The scenario analysis method is used in predicting the methane emission from agricultural activities in China. The results show that: (1) The changing trend of total methane emission from agricultural activities in China from 2001 to 2020 increased firstly, then decreased, and finally tended to steady fluctuation, in which the contribution of livestock intestinal fermentation emission was the largest. (2) From 2001 to 2020, GHGI1 of methane in agricultural activities in China showed a downward trend, while GHGI2 fluctuated. (3) China’s methane emissions from agricultural activities are predicted to increase under different scenarios from 2021 to 2030. To meet China’s goal of reaching a carbon peak by 2030, the strict emission reduction scenario is more suitable for China’s future methane emission development trend than other scenarios.