Estimation of forest carbon storage and carbon sink potential in Yunnan Province under the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”

Abstract Through the accounting of forest carbon reserves and resource value in Yunnan Province, the future forest carbon reserves and carbon sink potential in Yunnan Province are predicted. Using the forest stock expansion method, the forest carbon reserves and their changes in Yunnan Province from 1973 to 2018 are calculated. The GM (1,1) grey prediction model predicts the forest carbon sequestration potential in Yunnan Province. The results show that: (1) the forest carbon storage in Yunnan Province increased from 485.43 million t in 1976 to 937.01 million t in 2018, an increase of 1.9 times, with an average annual growth of 10.50 million t. In 2018, the value of forest carbon reserves was 94062.92 million yuan. (2) The forest carbon sequestration in Yunnan Province varies significantly in different periods. Between 1973-1998 and 1999-2018, the average carbon sequestration was 6.22 million T / A and 16.36 million T / A respectively. (3) The predicted values of forest carbon reserves in 2023, 2028 and 2033 in Yunnan Province are 1001.41 million t, 1103.66 million t and 1216.34 million t respectively, with an average annual increase of carbon sequestration of 17.46 million T / A. According to the research results, the forest area and the carbon storage of forest resources of Yunnan Province is increasing. forest carbon sequestration in Yunnan Province has excellent development potential, and plays a more significant role in forestry carbon sequestration for the realization of the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goal.