Dynamics in demographic processes in the omsk region

Significance: The demographic processes currently taking place in our country, including in the Siberian Federal District, have a distinct negative character. The purpose of the study: to analyze dynamics in demographic processes - fertility, mortality and natural increase of the population of the Omsk region, to analyze gender composition of the population of the region and structure of the working age population. Material and methods: The observation period covers 15 years - from 2005 to 2020. The material of the study was official statistics on the number of registered births and deaths, posted on the website of the Federal State Statistics Service. Time series analysis was carried out using the least squares method, regressions for trends were determined and the growth rate of indicators was calculated. Results: In the Omsk region, the birth rate was declining, and by the beginning of 2021 it equaled to 9.3 per 1000 population, which is 30% lower than the average multi-year birth rate. Negative natural growth and migration decline of the population and pronounced urbanization of the Omsk region only exacerbate demographic problems. In the population age structure, there is a decrease in the share of working age population, accompanied by higher demographic burden on both urban and rural working age population. Conclusion: The birth rate in the Omsk region has been characterized by a downward trend since 2014, in 2020 the lowest birth rate of 9.3 per 1000 population was registered, it is 30% lower than the average multi-year level. Mortality in 2005-2019 in the Omsk region was characterized by a weak downward trend (Tsn = -1.2%, r = 0.93), and increased by 23.0%, adding up to 15.5 per 1000 population against the background of the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection. Scope of application: the study results can be used to develop measures aimed at stabilizing demographic processes: reducing mortality, including among the working-age population, and increasing fertility.