The spatial relationship between long-term vacant housing and non-communicable diseases in US shrinking and growing metropolitan areas

The rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has led to increased attention on understanding how built environments affect NCD risks. However, there's a significant gap in the literature regarding the relationship between housing vacancy duration and NCDs in metropolitan areas with varying development rates. Our research addresses this gap by examining the association between housing vacancy duration and NCDs across all U.S. metropolitan areas, considering growing, shrinking, and fluctuating counties. We used a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model to analyze this relationship, finding that longer-term vacant housing (over 3 years) is more positively associated with NCDs compared to short-term vacancies. We also discovered that this association is non-uniform across metropolitan counties, except for cancer and stroke outcomes. Shrinking counties in the Northeast are particularly affected, emphasizing the need for targeted public health interventions in these areas. This study underscores the importance of revitalizing vacant homes, especially those vacant for over 3 years, in both shrinking and growing regions to improve public health. Policymakers should adopt tailored strategies, engage public health experts, and invest in healthcare infrastructure to effectively address the health risks linked to vacant housing.