A 16-year climatology of the link between dry air intrusions and large-scale dust storms in North Africa

Understanding the underlying processes causing large-scale dust storms and their transport in North Africa is essential for their accurate prediction. Different atmospheric mechanisms have been identified to govern the emission of dust and its transport, ranging in scale and season, from Rossby wave breaking to local, low-level cold and dry jets. Connecting these features in a Lagrangian sense is a coherent airflow from the midlatitude upper troposphere to the surface where dust concentrations peak. Such dry intrusions (DIs) are linked to reduced static stability and strong, dry winds and indeed have been recently shown to play a central role in four of the largest dust storm in the region. Yet, the climatological link between DIs and dust storms over a long time period has not been studied yet. The aim of this paper is to identify objectively dust events that co-occur with DIs, and understand their spatio-temporal characteristics and underlying dynamical drivers. Combining Lagrangian-based DI identification in ERA-Interim and dust optical depth data in CAMS reanalyses, 325 events during 2003-2018 are identified. The events occur mostly in late winter and spring, when they are also larger in size and last longer, compared to summer events. When occurring with DIs, dust optical depth is generally higher, compared to events that are not accompanied by DIs. We focus on March events, and find coherent large-scale precursors and atmospheric conditions of dust-DI events: a northward jet shift over the North Atlantic with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking occurs on average 4-5 days prior to the events. The lower troposphere responds with dry and cold conditions in northwest Africa, coinciding with the outflow of the DI airstream that is initially guided by the upper trough. Finally, elevated near-surface dust concentrations prevail on the leading edge of the DI in tropical west Africa, and in northeast Africa, where dust is exported to the Mediterranean in association with a Mediterranean cyclone.