Long- and short-term dynamic stability of submarine slopes undergoing hydrate dissociation

Natural gas hydrates (NGHs) have recently been recognized as a promising source of relatively clean alternative energy and a significant factor in triggering marine geohazards. This paper presents a numerical method for calculating the transient excess pore pressure associated with hydrate dissociation in submarine sediments with THC (Thermo-Hydro-Chemical) coupling. Then, the dynamic stability of submarine slopes experiencing gas hydrate dissociation is evaluated based on limit equilibrium analysis considering the real evolution of excess pore pressure. Finally, this work is applied to investigate the dynamic responses of typical hydrate slopes in the Shenhu Sea area, South China Sea (SCS), under two different timescales: 1) Case I: gradual temperature increases at the seafloor due to climate warming and 2) Case II: sharp temperature increases in the interior of the hydrate deposit due to hydrate extraction. In Case I, the timescale of hydrate dissociation is millennial. Due to the longterm temperature rise, the hydrate will dissociate slowly, which allows the generated free gas to migrate upwards and gradually accumulate at the transition zone between a porous layer and an overlying low-permeability layer. Eventually, the slow accumulation of free gas may lead to disc-shaped failure of the hydrate-bearing slope. In contrast, in Case II, the temperature rises sharply over a short period of time, which leads to the drastic dissociation of the hydrate. The timescale of hydrate dissociation is decadal. As a result, the excess pore pressure accumulates rapidly. Under the influence of excess pore pressure, the sediment will deform dramatically, which may cause a penetration failure of the hydrate-bearing slope. These findings are relevant to the long-term (millennial) safety of human beings and short-term (decadal) utilization of energy resources.