Impact of climate change on the degradation of rendered façades: Expectations for a dry and hot summer temperate climate

Abstract Climate change is accelerating and can seriously affect the built environment, if not properly acknowledged in the design and maintenance stages. Despite the globally expected warming, climate changes will differ depending on region and climate type. What implications will temperature, precipitation and wind changes have on the degradation of the building envelope, in Southern Europe? How will the performance of façade claddings be affected by the end of the century? The purpose of this research is to determine the expected impact of climate change on the degradation of rendered façades, in a dry and hot summer temperate climate. This study is based on the complex relationship between climate parameters projections for Portugal and the known effects of environmental agents on the degradation of renderings. Projections indicate the increase of mean temperature and heat waves, reduction of precipitation and wet days, intensification of rainfall in shorter periods and decrease of wind speed in most of the country. Notwithstanding the projections’ inherent uncertainty, more cracking and fewer stains are expected. Due to the cracking increase, more loss of adhesion is probable. Further research is necessary to assess the risks of intense rainfall events to rendered façades, considering the also projected precipitation decrease.