How well must surface vorticity be organized for tornadogenesis?

Abstract This study investigates whether quasi–random surface vertical vorticity is sufficient for tornadogenesis when combined with an updraft typical of tornadic supercells. The viability of this pathway could mean that a coherent process to produce well–organized surface vertical vorticity is rather unimportant. Highly idealized simulations are used to establish random noise as a possible seed for the production of tornado–like vortices (TLVs). A number of sensitivities are then examined across the simulations. The most explanatory predictor of whether a TLV will form (and how strong it will become) is the maximal value of initial surface circulation found near the updraft. Perhaps surprisingly, sufficient circulation for tornadogenesis is often present even when the surface vertical vorticity field lacks any obvious organized structure. The other key ingredient for TLV formation is confirmed to be a large vertical gradient in vertical velocity close to the ground (to promote stretching). Overall, it appears that random surface vertical vorticity is indeed sufficient for TLV formation given adequate stretching. However, it is shown that longer–wavelength noise is more likely to be associated with substantial surface circulation (because it is the areal integral of vertical vorticity). Thus, coherent vorticity sources that produce longer wavelength structures are likely to be the most supportive of tornadogenesis.