Parameters Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 Based on the SCEIR Prediction Model

At the end of 2019, COVID-19 outbreaks occurred one after another in countries worldwide. Managing the outbreak efficiently and stably is an essential public health issue facing countries worldwide. In this paper, based on the SEIR model, we propose a SCEIR model that incorporates close contacts (C) and self-protectors (P). Firstly, the epidemic data of China, the USA, and Italy are predicted and compared with the actual data. Secondly, sensitivity analysis of each parameter in the SCEIR model was conducted using Anylogic. The study shows that the SCEIR model established in this paper has a certain validity. The infection rate in contact with E (𝛽) etc., has positive effects on the basic regeneration number (R0); the self-isolation rate (φ) etc., has a negative effect on the basic regeneration number (R0). Emergency management measures are proposed according to the influencing factors corresponding to the model parameters. These can provide theoretical guidance for developing effective epidemic prevention and control measures in areas where the epidemic has not yet been controlled. It also provides some reference for formulating prevention and control policies for similar epidemics that may occur in the future.