Determining the Response of Riparian Vegetation and River Morphology to Drought Using Google Earth Engine and Machine Learning

Riparian vegetation composition and channel morphology are susceptible to long-term alterations caused by external stressors, including climate-change-induced droughts and engineered infrastructures. The objectives of this study were to (1) quantify trends in riparian vegetation and channel/floodplain morphology over large spatial (∼290 km) and temporal scales (∼30 years) and (2) investigate the relationships between hydroclimatic drivers and changes in riparian vegetation and channel morphology. We implemented a random forest classifier via a machine learning technique in Google Earth Engine. The study area was a 290 km reach of the Rio Grande located in New Mexico, USA. We used the combination of remotely sensed data and products (e.g., Landsat imagery, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land cover) to characterize vegetation, vegetation cover changes, and river morphology shifts from 1984 to 2020. The trend analysis revealed increased vegetated areas and NDVI (0.0004/yr) during long-term drought. The channel experienced a reduction in width associated with vegetation encroachment and the formation of stable vegetated islands. The streamflow hydrograph characteristics were positively correlated with vegetation cover and channel morphology. Our study contributes novel insights into the long-term riparian ecosystem dynamics under drought stress, informing drought impact mitigation and ecosystem management in arid and semi-arid regions.