Hydro-economic modeling of managed aquifer recharge in the lower Mississippi

The Mississippi Embayment aquifer is one of the largest alluvial groundwater aquifers in the United States. It is being excessively used, located along the lower Mississippi River covering approximately 202,019 km(2) (78,000 square miles). Annual average groundwater depletion in the aquifer has been estimated at 5.18 billion cubic meters (Gm(3)) (4.2 million acre-feet) in 1981-2000. However, since 2000, annual groundwater depletion has increased abruptly to 8 Gm(3) (2001-2008). In recent years, multi-state efforts have been initiated to improve the Mississippi Embayment aquifer sustainability. One management strategy of interest for preserving groundwater resources is managed aquifer recharge (MAR). In this study, we evaluate the impact of different MAR scenarios on land and water use decisions and the overall groundwater system using an economic model able to assess profitability of crop and land use decisions coupled to the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) hydrogeologic model. We run the coupled model for 60 years by considering the hydrologic conditions from the MERAS model for the years 2002-2007 and repeating them 10 times. We find MAR is not economically attractive when the water cost is greater than $0.05/m(3). Groundwater storage is unlikely to improve when relying solely on MAR as groundwater management strategy but rather should be implemented jointly with other groundwater conservation policies.