A photo-identification-based assessment model of southern right whales Eubalaena australis surveyed in South African waters, with a focus onrecent low counts of mothers with calves

Photo-identification data for southern right whale cow-calf pairs on the South African calving grounds provide one of the longest abundance time-series for any whale population worldwide. Following a very steady increase from a heavily depleted state, surveys since 2015 reflect many notably low counts. These data are analysed to investigate whether these low counts can be explained by changes in reproduction-related parameters. This necessitates a modification to an earlier reproduction model for these whales, fit to photo-identification data to allow for early abortions; hence, a whale pregnant one year can again be pregnant the next. This can account for an increase in calving intervals in a way that differs from a whale resting for another year or an increase in late-abortion probability. This modification was able to account for the low number of sightings of cow-calf pairs over the 2015 to 2020 period (excepting for 2018), though the estimated probability of sighting a cow-calf pair in 2018 is somewhat low given a nearly unchanged annual survey effort. Hence, low numbers of sightings of females with calves for five of the years from 2015 to 2020 can be explained by changes in reproduction-related parameters rather than an increased natural mortality which is inconsistent with the photo-identification data. Changing environmental (particularly feeding) conditions seems to be the likely cause, possibly associated with a changed distribution of these whales. The estimated number of all whales in the population in 2020 is 6 470 (SE 285), with the number of parous females estimated to have increased 15-fold over the last four decades.