Land use change and forest patch analysis as a decision-making tool to sustainably develop plantation agriculture and optimize biodiversity conservation

Established for biodiversity conservation, protected areas (PAs) have been downsized, downgraded, and/or degazetted for socioeconomic development including plantation agriculture. Although studies have highlighted causes, implications for biodiversity conservation, and the need for policies governing Protected Area Downsizing, Downgrading, and Degazettement (PADDD), no study has proposed a methodology to inform PADDD events to help decision making that balance economic growth pursuit with ecological and environmental commitments. A methodology based on land use change and forest patch analysis has been applied to Buvuma Island to guide the choice of PAs that can undergo PADDD as well as identification of new areas that can be declared as PAs. Our results revealed that, over the last decade, natural vegetation of Buvuma Island has been highly degraded with forest depletion from 45.0% in 2007 to 15.8% in 2016. About 65% of the initial forest cover were lost. The average yearly forest loss rate was 3.2% or 712.8 ha. A total number of 19 PAs covering 3103 ha including 2816 ha of existing PAs and 287 ha of identified forest patches were selected for biodiversity conservation. This flexible methodology can be applied at various spatial and temporal scale to ensure sustainable plantation agriculture development.