Predictors of 1-Year Perceived Recovery, Absenteeism, and Expenses Due to Low Back Pain in Workers Receiving Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy: A Prospective Cohort Study

This multicenter prospective cohort study aimed to preliminarily explore statistically relevant modifiable and predetermined factors for 1-year perceived recovery, absenteeism, and personal expenses in workers who received Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy (MDT) for low back pain (LBP). Three stepwise multiple regression models were explored with 42 independent variables, including (1) socio-demographic factors; (2) risk stratification; (3) pain-related variables, psychological variables, and behavioral variables at baseline and changes after a month; (4) therapeutic alliance and exercise adherence at 1-month follow-up; and (5) MDT classification and therapist levels. Data from 58 participants were analyzed, after which a model with a medium effect size was developed for 1-year perceived recovery only. Consequently, patients with derangement syndrome were expected to have improved 1-year perceived recovery, with expected predetermined prognostic factors including shorter symptom duration, self-management skills to lead a healthy life, and less pain catastrophization at baseline. A stronger therapeutic alliance between patient and therapist during the 1-month MDT intervention was identified as an expected modifiable prognostic factor. It may be difficult to accurately predict the annual absenteeism and personal expenses due to LBP given the weak to low effect sizes of the developed models.