Re-thinking the role of exploratory scenarios for adaptive policymaking: An application for land use and transport planning

While scenario-building has proven useful in situations marked by considerable uncertainty in the context of land use and transport policymaking, additional research is needed to develop adaptive and dynamic scenario-building schemes. To address this gap, the present paper conceptualises an adaptive scenario-building approach that would facilitate adaptive policy responses by using exploratory scenarios as intermediate tipping points. An empirical research design is also conducted following a participatory approach, with a case study of the Henares Corridor in the Metropolitan Area of Madrid, Spain. Three exploratory scenarios are assessed as experimental tipping points for the basic policy pathways initially adopted by regional and local governments. The use of such tipping points suggested different adaptive policy responses: (i) preserving policy responses when exploratory scenarios are strongly aligned with the basic pathways; and (ii) transforming policy responses when significant deviations are perceived between the exploratory scenarios and the basic pathways. The paper also discusses the real-life application potential of this adaptive scenario-building approach, further research steps, and future horizons for scenariobuilding.