Model integrating CT-based radiomics and genomics for survival prediction in esophageal cancer patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy

Background Definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) is a standard treatment option for locally advanced stage inoperable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Evaluating clinical outcome prior to dCRT remains challenging. This study aimed to investigate the predictive power of computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics combined with genomics for the treatment efficacy of dCRT in ESCC patients. Methods This retrospective study included 118 ESCC patients who received dCRT. These patients were randomly divided into training (n = 82) and validation (n = 36) groups. Radiomic features were derived from the region of the primary tumor on CT images. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was conducted to select optimal radiomic features, and Rad-score was calculated to predict progression-free survival (PFS) in training group. Genomic DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded pre-treatment biopsy tissue. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were undertaken to identify predictors of survival for model development. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and C-index were used to evaluate the predictive performance and discriminatory ability of the prediction models, respectively. Results The Rad-score was constructed from six radiomic features to predict PFS. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the Rad-score and homologous recombination repair (HRR) pathway alterations were independent prognostic factors correlating with PFS. The C-index for the integrated model combining radiomics and genomics was better than that of the radiomics or genomics models in the training group (0.616 vs. 0.587 or 0.557) and the validation group (0.649 vs. 0.625 or 0.586). Conclusion The Rad-score and HRR pathway alterations could predict PFS after dCRT for patients with ESCC, with the combined radiomics and genomics model demonstrating the best predictive efficacy.