A novel risk model for predicting early relapse in acute myeloid leukemia patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation

Relapse remains the leading cause of death in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients following allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), limiting the efficacy of allo-HSCT. Thus, the ability to identify high-risk patients in a manner that permits early intervention has the potential to improve survival outcomes. We retrospectively enrolled 414 younger patients (aged 14–60 years) with AML who received allo-HSCT between January 2014 and May 2020. From June 2020 to June 2021, 110 consecutive patients were included prospectively in the validation cohort. The primary outcome was early relapse (relapse within 1 year). The cumulative incidence of early relapse after allo-HSCT was 11.8%. The overall survival rate for patients who relapsed within 1-year was 4.1% at 3 years after relapse. After multivariable adjustment, statistically significant associations between primary resistance, pre-transplantation measurable residual disease, DNMT3A mutation, or white blood cell count at diagnosis and early relapse were observed. An early relapse prediction model was developed based on these factors and the model performed well. Patients deemed to have a high risk or a low risk of early relapse had early relapse rates of 26.2% and 6.8%, respectively ( P < 0.001). The prediction model could be used to help identify patients at risk for early relapse and to guide personalized relapse prevention.