A combined inverse prediction and experimental analysis for the frozen ground heat transfer in a structure foundation

This paper takes the representative buried structure in permafrost regions, a transmission line tower foundation, as the research object. An inverse prediction is conducted in a scaled-down experimental system mimicking actual heat conduction of the frozen ground in a tower foundation. In permafrost regions, global warming and the heat transfer through the buried structures bring significantly adverse thermal effects on the stability of the infrastructures. In modeling the thermal effects, it has been a challenge to determine the ground surface boundary condition and heat source strength from the buried structures due to the complex climate and environmental conditions. In this work, based on the improved model predictive inverse method with an adaptive strategy, an inverse scheme is successfully implemented to simultaneously identify the time-varying surface temperature and the time-space-dependent heat source representing the buried structures. In this scheme, an adaptive time-varying predictive model is established by the rolling update of the sensitivity response coefficients according to the predicted temperature field to overcome the influence of nonlinear characteristics in the heat transfer process. The inverse method is verified by simulation and experimental data. According to the experimental inversion results, the reconstructed temperature distribution efficiently predicts the thermal state evolution of the permafrost foundation under seasonal freezing and thawing. It is found that, under the experimental conditions, the intensified thawing and freezing are significantly severe, e.g., the increased area ratio of active layer thickness is as high as 28% after building a tower, and the depth of permafrost table ranges from about 14 mm to about 38 mm, which could be detrimental to the stability and safety of the tower foundation. This study will provide valuable guidance for risk assessments or optimizing the design and maintenance of the real tower foundation and similar buried structures.