A New Vaccination Assessment Method and Strategy for COVID-19

Optimizing vaccination to reduce COVID-19 death remains a challenge. A new method, Gompertzian Analysis, examines numbers of infectious disease cases and deaths, by age, on log graphs, capturing COVID-19 Lethality (Deaths/Cases) by the Gompertz Mortality Equation. Gompertzian Analysis revealed that each of the first 4 Vaccination Events (primary and boosters) led to a ~1/3rd reduction in COVID-19 Lethality. These vaccination reductions in COVID 19 Lethality were cumulative, persistent, and undiminished by variants, while vaccinations impact on COVID 19 Infectivity (Cases/Population) was fleeting. Primary vaccination and 3 boosters gave an ~85% reduction in COVID-19 Lethality, with projections suggesting ~68% fewer deaths (~267,000 to ~85,000). Projections also suggest that 6 boosters may offer a ~96% reduction in COVID 19 Lethality, to the familiar level of influenza, with a ~91% reduction in COVID 19 deaths, to ~25,000, fewer than automobile deaths. Gompertzian Analysis provides rational vaccination guidelines by age. Gompertzian Analysis points to a strategy molded by multiple vaccinations reducing COVID 19 Lethality, which is persistent, rather than focusing on reducing COVID 19 Infectivity, which is fleeting. Such a strategy, based on accumulating the necessary number of vaccinations (~7), and possibly no more, would accept vaccinations limited ability to prevent infection in exchange for its power to prevent death ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study did not receive any funding ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The results described were from publicly available datasets, which can be found in the references here I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes The results described were from publicly available datasets, which can be found in the references here