Risk estimation for idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus: development and validation of a brain morphometry–based nomogram

Objectives To develop and validate a nomogram based on MRI features for predicting iNPH. Methods Patients aged ≥ 60 years (clinically diagnosed with iNPH, Parkinson’s disease, or Alzheimer’s disease or healthy controls) who underwent MRI including three-dimensional T1-weighted volumetric MRI were retrospectively identified from two tertiary referral hospitals (one hospital for derivation set and the other for validation set). Clinical and imaging features for iNPH were assessed. Deep learning–based brain segmentation software was used for 3D volumetry. A prediction model was developed using logistic regression and transformed into a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to discrimination and calibration abilities. The nomogram was internally and externally validated. Results A total of 452 patients (mean age ± SD, 73.2 ± 6.5 years; 200 men) were evaluated as the derivation set. One hundred eleven and 341 patients were categorized into the iNPH and non-iNPH groups, respectively. In multivariable analysis, high-convexity tightness (odds ratio [OR], 35.1; 95% CI: 4.5, 275.5), callosal angle < 90° (OR, 12.5; 95% CI: 3.1, 50.0), and normalized lateral ventricle volume (OR, 4.2; 95% CI: 2.7, 6.7) were associated with iNPH. The nomogram combining these three variables showed an area under the curve of 0.995 (95% CI: 0.991, 0.999) in the study sample, 0.994 (95% CI: 0.990, 0.998) in the internal validation sample, and 0.969 (95% CI: 0.940, 0.997) in the external validation sample. Conclusion A brain morphometry–based nomogram including high-convexity tightness, callosal angle < 90°, and normalized lateral ventricle volume can help accurately estimate the probability of iNPH. Key Points • The nomogram with MRI findings (high-convexity tightness, callosal angle, and normalized lateral ventricle volume) helped in predicting the probability of idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus. • The nomogram may facilitate the prediction of idiopathic normal-pressure hydrocephalus and consequently avoid unnecessary invasive procedures such as the cerebrospinal fluid tap test, drainage test, and cerebrospinal fluid shunt surgery.