Comparison of Stroke and Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Chronic Kidney Disease.

Clinical decision making on anticoagulation in patients with chronic kidney disease with atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenging. The current strategies are based on small observational studies with conflicting results. This study explores the impact of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in the embolic-hemorrhagic balance among a large cohort of patients with AF. The study cohort included 15,457 patients diagnosed with AF between January 2014 and April 2020. The risk of ischemic stroke and major bleeding was determined by competing risk regression. During a mean follow-up of 4.29 ± 1.82 years, 3,678 patients (23.80%) died, 850 (5.50%) had an ischemic stroke, and 961 (6.22%) had a major bleeding. The incidence of stroke and bleeding increased as baseline GFR decreased. Interestingly, in GFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2, the bleeding risk was clearly higher than the embolic risk. As GFR decreased, anticoagulation was associated with an increased bleeding risk (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.700, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13 to 2.54, p = 0.009 for patients with GFR 30 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2 and 2.00, 95% CI 0.77 to 5.21, p = 0.156 for subjects with <30 ml/min/1.73 m2 compared with those with GFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively), but it was not associated with a decrease in embolic risk in patients with GFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2 (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.91, 95% CI 0.73 to 5.04, p = 0.189) In GFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2, the increase of major bleeding risk was higher than the increase of ischemic stroke risk, with a negative anticoagulation balance (greater increase in bleeding than reduction in embolism).