Ensemble Forecasts of Seasonal Dengue Epidemics

As a common vector-borne disease, dengue fever still remains a lot of challenges to forecast for which the significant distinction of epidemic scale is affected by multiple factors, such as mosquito density, meteorological conditions, geographical environment, travel and so on. To track down the epidemic scale and forecast the remaining time of epidemic season, the population size affected by the epidemic is evaluated before the compartmental model is optimized by assimilation observation with filtering method. In retrospective forecast of dengue pandemic for Guangzhou from 2014-2015 seasons, accurate forecast of dengue cases is generated with an accurate prediction of peak time in all time periods. The real-time forecast system shows a good performance on capturing the trajectory of dengue transmission and scale of epidemic. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NO. 81703323 and NO. 81773497) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606200, 2018YFA0606202). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: No ethics committee approval is required to obtain the data since only count data is presented and no personal information is revealed, thereby maintaining confidentiality. All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data included in this study are available upon request by contact with the corresponding author.