Counting Cases and Deaths by Age Tells Us About COVID-19’s Infectious and Lethal Components

Gauging COVID-19’s lethality , and how vaccination can reduce that lethality , has been challenging. Here, a new method, Gompertzian Analysis , counting cases and deaths, by age, and displaying them on logarithmic graphs, is outlined, and its first findings presented: FIRST, COVID-19 Gompertzian Lethality (Deaths/Cases) exhibits an ~10,000-fold exponential increase in the chance of death with age, the Gompertzian Force of Mortality , captured by the Gompertz Mortality Equation . SECOND, COVID-19 Pasteurian Infectivity (Cases/Population) occurs at similar rates across ages. THIRD, the same Gompertzian Force of Mortality characterizes other diseases and all-cause mortality, possibly from loss of Mitotic Dilution of toxic compounds due to decline in mitosis. FOURTH, resistance to COVID-19 infectivity and lethality appear to be separate processes. FIFTH, Over the past several years, Gompertzian Lethality , has declined, but not Pasteurian Infectivity . SIXTH, with each variant, Gompertzian Lethality has declined, but not Pasteurian Infectivity . SEVENTH, the unvaccinated have seen a decline in Gompertzian Lethality , less than the vaccinated, ascribable to infection, at the cost of lives lost. EIGHTH, different vaccines have different reductions in Gompertzian Lethality and Pasteurian Infectivity . NINTH, vaccination has reduced Pasteurian Infectivity , but not enough to suppress the pandemic. TENTH, vaccination has reduced Gompertzian Lethality , with sequential vaccination pointing linearly towards zero death after 3 or 4 boosters, without signs of waning. CONCLUSION: Gompertzian Analysis provides new, practical, actionable, information for understanding, and minimizing, the lethal burden of COVID-19 and other diseases. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Not Funded ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: All data were extracted either from supplements to papers cited, or from open access datasets, also cited I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data were extracted either from supplements to papers cited, or from open access datasets, also cited