Divergence of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 and reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 incident case data coincident with wide-spread availability of at-home COVID-19 antigen tests

Concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater settled solids from publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) historically correlated strongly with laboratory confirmed incident COVID-19 case data. With the increased availability of at-home antigen tests since late 2021 and early 2022, laboratory test availability and test seeking behavior has decreased. In the United States, the results from at-home antigen tests are not typically reportable to public health agencies and thus are not counted in case reports. As a result, the number of reported laboratory-confirmed incident COVID-19 cases has decreased dramatically, even during times of increased test positivity rates and wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Herein, we tested whether the correlative relationship between wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 incidence rate has changed since 1 May 2022, a point in time immediately before the onset of the BA.2/BA.5 surge, the first surge to begin after at-home antigen test availability was high in the region. We used daily data from three POTWs in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area of California, USA for the analysis. We found that although there is a significant positive association between wastewater measurements and incident rate data collected after 1 May 2022, the parameters describing the relationship are different than those describing the relationship between the data collected prior to 1 May 2022. If laboratory test seeking or availability continues to change, the relationship between wastewater and reported case data will continue to change. Results suggests that, assuming SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding remains relatively stable among those infected with the virus as different variants emerge, that wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be used to estimate COVID-19 cases as they would have been during the time when laboratory testing availability and test seeking behavior were at a high (here, before 1 May 2022) using the historical relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA and COVID-19 case data. ### Competing Interest Statement Bradley J. White, Dorothea Duong, and Bridgette Hughes are employees of Verily Life Sciences, LLC. There are no other competing interests. ### Funding Statement This work was funded by the CDC Foundation and the Sergey Brin Family Foundation. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The study was reviewed by the IRB at Stanford University and the IRB has determined that this research does not involve human subjects as defined in 45 CFR 46.102(f) and therefore does not require IRB oversight. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data produced in this study are publicly available through the Stanford Digital Repository ().