Study on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of NDVI and Its Driving Mechanism Based on Geodetector and Hurst Indexes: A Case Study of the Tibet Autonomous Region

The Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) is located in the mid-latitude and high-cold regions, and the ecological environment in most areas is fragile. Studying its surface vegetation coverage can identify the ecosystem’s development trends and provide a specific contribution to global environmental change. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) can better reflect the coverage of surface vegetation. Therefore, based on remote sensing data with a resolution of 1 km2, air temperature, precipitation, and other data in the same period in the study area from 1998 to 2019, this paper uses trend analysis, F-significance tests, the Hurst index, and the Geodetector model to obtain the spatial distribution, change characteristics, and evolution trends of the NDVI in the TAR in the past 22 years. At the same time, the quantitative relationship between natural and human factors and NDVI changes is also obtained. The study results show that the NDVI in the southern and southeastern parts of the TAR is higher, with mean values greater than 0.5 showing that vegetation cover is better. The NDVI in the western and northwestern parts of the TAR is lower, with mean values less than 0.3, indicating vegetation cover is worse. NDVI in the TAR showed an overall increasing trend from 1998 to 2019 but a decreasing trend in ridgelines, snow cover, and glacier-covered areas. The areas where NDVI values show a trend of increasing and then decreasing in the future account for 53.69% of the total area of the TAR. The most crucial factor affecting NDVI changes in the TAR is soil type, followed by influencing factors such as vegetation cover type, average annual air temperature, and average annual precipitation. The influence of natural elements is generally more significant than anthropogenic factors. The influencing factors have synergistic effects, and combining anthropogenic factors and other factors will show mutual enhancement and non-linear enhancement relationships. This study provides a theoretical basis for natural resource conservation, ecosystem restoration, and sustainable human development strategies in the TAR.