Forecasting the Failure Time of an Expansive Soil Slope Using Digital Image Correlation under Rainfall Infiltration Conditions

Expansive soil is one of the most widely distributed special soils in the world. It is widely developed in Henan, Anhui, Guangxi and other places in China, and highly overlaps with densely populated and economically active areas. Expansive soil is considered a typical "problematic soil" because its mechanical behaviour is very sensitive to water content changes; such behaviour mainly manifests as swelling upon wetting and shrinking upon drying, so the presence of expansive soil is an important factor in mountain landslide disasters in southern China. Because the particularities of its constituent materials are related to typical physical and mechanical properties, forecasting the failure times of expansive soil slopes remains a global problem. In this study, a series of in situ artificial rainfall experiments were conducted on an excavated expansive soil slope; then, the digital image correlation (DIC) method was applied to monitor the slope surface deformation and crack development. Finally, the failure time of the slope was forecasted using the inverse velocity (INV) and slope (SLO) models. The study results show that the deformation and failure processes of the analysed expansive soil slope had an obvious crack control effect, and the displacement-time curve derived by the DIC method had an obvious "phased change law". The data points calculated by the INV method were discrete and had high linear fitting requirements, resulting in large failure time forecasts. When the SLO method was used to forecast the failure time, because the values derived in the stable deformation stage were relatively concentrated in the calculation process, an obvious linear relationship was found in only the accelerated deformation stage, so the prediction results were more accurate. Therefore, the SLO method should be preferentially used to forecast the failure of expansive soil slopes with "step-like" displacement. These results enabled us to characterize slide processes and identify the mechanism responsible for the movement of a rainfall-induced expansive soil landslide. The stage deformation and failure mode of expansive soil landslide under rainfall infiltration: "slow deformation-stable deformation-accelerated deformation-instability failure" was revealed. This study is helpful for determining the deformation and failure mechanism of rainfall-induced expansive soil landslide and forecasting expansive soil landslides and providing guidance for controlling landslide hazards in expansive soil areas.