Uncovering the roadmap of decoupling economic growth and CO2 emissions targeting energy-resource-emission-intensive industrial parks located nearby large river: Practices and implications from China

Clustering the manufacturing industries nearby major river is a common feature globally and can offer significant benefits in terms of productivity improvement. Nonetheless, such clustering also poses extensive and far-reaching environmental burdens on the river. China is implementing a green and low-carbon transformation strategy along the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, two of the largest rivers in its manufacturing hub. This research examines the following three ways for decoupling economic growth and CO2 emissions in a typical industrial park located along the Yangtze River, which includes the chemical industry, textile industry, glass manufacturing industry, and automobile manufacturing as pillar industries. First, we use the Tapio decoupling model and Kaya identity to forecast the decoupling paradigm between economic growth and CO2 emissions in the park by 2030 in response to policy interventions. Second, 10 two-digit level industries (TDLIs) with high energy-resource consumption and CO2 emissions in the manufacturing sector are evaluated. Third, a model is developed to determine the most appropriate approach for modifying the 10 TDLIs' structures under different scenario analysis. The main findings are as follows. It is expected that the parks could achieve a relative decoupling around 2028 and 2029 under policy interventions. In addition, tailored policies for industries with high economic output and low CO2 emissions are proposed, while their opposites are also. Lastly, the optimal way for the park to decouple economic development and CO2 emissions is to simultaneously adjust its industrial structure and upgrade its energy facilities. This would result in a 31% reduction in CO2 emissions with positive effects on the economy and continuous upgrading of the industrial structure of the park. This study will play an important role in the green transformation of China's manufacturing clusters located along the Yangtze and the Yellow Rivers and will also have implications for other similar manufacturing clusters.