Spatiotemporal dynamics analysis of surface water body and snow cover area to climate change in Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

Surface water and snow cover in mountainous areas are sensitive to climate change. Pakistan's irrigation water supply primarily depends on the Indus River. Identifying the spatio-temporal dynamics, response patterns of snow cover area (SCA) and surface water bodies (SWB) to climate change are vital for understanding the changes in the hydrological process of the Indus basin. Therefore, the SWB area was investigated using surface reflectance data (MOD09A1) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and SCA changes were examined using MODIS snow cover data (MOD10A2) from 2009 to 2018 in Gilgit Baltistan with respect to climatic variables. According to results the SWB area in Gilgit Baltistan, for annual, summer and winter, changes at the rate of -0.00057% yr(-1) (p > 0.05), -0.00042% yr(-1) (p > 0.05) and 0.00037% yr(-1) (p > 0.05), respectively. Moreover, annual mean temperature and the SWB exhibited a negative correlation (r = -0.244, p > 0.05) and correlation between SWB and total annual precipitation was positive (r = 0.535, p > 0.05). However, SCA of Gilgit Baltistan changed at the rate of -0.396% yr(-1) (p < 0.05), -0.940% yr(-1) (p < 0.05) and -0.253% yr(-1) (p > 0.05) for annual, summer and winter, respectively. Furthermore, annual mean temperature and SCA exhibited a negative correlation (r = -0.731, p < 0.05), whereas annual total precipitation and SCA showed a positive correlation (r = 0.636, p < 0.05). These results indicated that climate had been significantly affected the SCA and SWB of the Gilgit Baltistan.