Modeling current and future habitat suitability of an iconic bird to inform restoration planning in southeastern Louisiana, USA

Louisiana is facing a land loss crisis with 5,000 km(2) lost since the 1930s, and another 10,000 km(2) may disappear over the next 50 years. In response, the state developed a Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast, which includes predictions for how wildlife species respond to futures with or without restoration action. However, the 2017 Master Plan did not include a bird species representative of brackish or freshwater wetland habitats. Our objective therefore was to evaluate the potential for the Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) to serve as an indicator of freshwater wetland health, and to develop a model to predict Bald Eagle responses to land cover change 20 and 50 years into the future, with or without restoration action. Using nest location data collected by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries from the Barataria Basin, we modeled the relationship between Bald Eagle nest occurrence and land cover using boosted regression trees. Model performance was strong, explaining 54.4 +/- 0.1% of the deviance in nest occurrence, and showed that Bald Eagle nests were more common in areas with greater fresh forested wetland, freshwater marsh, and flotant marsh land cover. Future suitability for nesting Bald Eagles was higher in 20 and 50 years with restoration action compared to without, although suitability in both years was lower than contemporary suitability, regardless of restoration action. Our model suggests that comprehensive restoration action is needed, including the implementation of Mississippi River diversions, to sustain high densities of nesting Bald Eagles in coastal Louisiana.