Structural brain network deviations predict recovery after traumatic brain injury

Objective: Traumatic brain injury results in diffuse axonal injury and the ensuing maladaptive alterations in network function are associated with incomplete recovery and persistent disability. Despite the importance of axonal injury as an endophenotype in TBI, there is no biomarker that can measure the aggregate and region-specific burden of axonal injury. Normative modeling is an emerging quantitative case-control technique that can capture region-specific and aggregate deviations in brain networks at the individual patient level. Our objective was to apply normative modeling in TBI to study deviations in brain networks after primarily complicated mild TBI and study its relationship with other validated measures of injury severity, burden of post-TBI symptoms, and functional impairment. Method: We analyzed 70 T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted MRIs longitudinally collected from 35 individuals with primarily complicated mild TBI during the subacute and chronic post-injury periods. Each individual underwent longitudinal blood sampling to characterize blood protein biomarkers of axonal and glial injury and assessment of post-injury recovery in the subacute and chronic periods. By comparing the MRI data of individual TBI participants with 35 uninjured controls, we estimated the longitudinal change in structural brain network deviations. We compared network deviation with independent measures of acute intracranial injury estimated from head CT and blood protein biomarkers. Using elastic net regression models, we identified brain regions in which deviations present in the subacute period predict chronic post-TBI symptoms and functional status. Results: Post-injury structural network deviation was significantly higher than controls in both subacute and chronic periods, associated with an acute CT lesion and subacute blood levels of glial fibrillary acid protein (r = 0.5, p = 0.008) and neurofilament light (r = 0.41, p = 0.02). Longitudinal change in network deviation associated with change in functional outcome status (r = -0.51, p = 0.003) and post-concussive symptoms (BSI: r = 0.46, p = 0.03; RPQ: r = 0.46, p = 0.02). The brain regions where the node deviation index measured in the subacute period predicted chronic TBI symptoms and functional status corresponded to areas known to be susceptible to neurotrauma. Conclusion: Normative modeling can capture structural network deviations, which may be useful in estimating the aggregate and region-specific burden of network changes induced by TAI. If validated in larger studies, structural network deviation scores could be useful for enrichment of clinical trials of targeted TAI-directed therapies.