Deep learning-based precise prediction and early detection of radiation-induced temporal lobe injury for nasopharyngeal carcinomaResearch in context

Summary: Background: Radiotherapy is the mainstay of treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Radiation-induced temporal lobe injury (TLI) can regress or resolve in the early phase, but it is irreversible at a later stage. However, no study has proposed a risk-based follow-up schedule for its early detection. Planning evaluation is difficult when dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters are similar and optimization is terminated. Methods: This multicenter retrospective study included 6065 patients between 2014 and 2018. A 3D ResNet-based deep learning model was developed in training and validation cohorts and independently tested using concordance index in internal and external test cohorts. Accordingly, the patients were stratified into risk groups, and the model-predicted risks were used to develop risk-based follow-up schedules. The schedule was compared with the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) recommendation (every 3 months during the first 2 years and every 6 months in 3–5 years). Additionally, the model was used to evaluate plans with similar DVH parameters. Findings: Our model achieved concordance indexes of 0.831, 0.818, and 0.804, respectively, which outperformed conventional prediction models (all P < 0.001). The temporal lobes in all the cohorts were stratified into three groups with discrepant TLI-free survival. Personalized follow-up schedules developed for each risk group could detect TLI 1.9 months earlier than the RTOG recommendation. According to a higher median predicted 3-year TLI-free survival (99.25% vs. 99.15%, P < 0.001), the model identified a better plan than previous models. Interpretation: The deep learning model predicted TLI more precisely. The model-determined risk-based follow-up schedule detected the TLI earlier. The planning evaluation was refined because the model identified a better plan with a lower risk of TLI. Funding: The Sun Yat-sen University Clinical Research 5010 Program (2015020), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2022A1515110356), Medical Scientific Research Foundation of Guangdong Province (A2022367), and Guangzhou Science and Technology Program (2023A04J1788).