The indications for core decompression surgery in patients with ARCO stage I-II osteonecrosis of the femoral head: a new, comprehensive prediction system

Background Core decompression (CD) is considered the most popular treatment method for patients with Association Research Circulation Osseous (ARCO) stage I-II osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH). However, the definitive indication for CD is currently not well established. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients who were diagnosed with ARCO stage I-II ONFH and who underwent CD were included. According to the prognosis, the patients were divided into two groups: collapse of the femoral head after CD and noncollapse of the femoral head. Independent risk factors for the failure of CD treatment were identified. Subsequently, a new scoring system that included all these risk factors was built to help estimate the individual risk of CD failure in patients who were planning to undergo CD. Results The study included 1537 hips after decompression surgery. The overall failure rate of CD surgery was 52.44%. Seven independent prognostic factors for failed CD surgery were identified, such as male sex (HR = 75.449; 95% confidence interval (CI), 42.863-132.807), Aetiology (Idiopathic HR = 2.762; 95% CI, 2.016–3.788, Steroid-induced HR = 2.543; 95% CI, 1.852–3.685), if the patient had a seated occupation (HR = 3.937; 95% CI, 2.712–5.716), age (HR = 1.045; 95% CI, 1.032–1.058), haemoglobin level (HR = 0.909; 95% CI, 0.897–0.922), disease duration (HR = 1.217; 95% CI, 1.169–1.267) and the combined necrosis angle (HR = 1.025; 95% CI, 1.022–1.028). The final scoring system included these seven risk factors, and the area under the curve of this scoring system was 0.935 (95% confidential interval = 0.922–0.948). Conclusion This new scoring system might provide evidence-based medical proof for determining whether a patient with ARCO stage I - II ONFH might benefit from CD surgery. This scoring system is crucial for making clinical decisions. Consequently, this scoring system is recommended before CD surgery, which could help determine the potential prognosis of patients.