Influence of forest management changes and reuse of peat production areas on water quality in a northern river

•A challenge in land use is related to use of peatlands for bioenergy production.•We created storylines for land use of peat fields together with climate change.•We modelled their influence on water quality by process-based models.•Conversion to arable land may pose a risk to the ecological status of the river.•Sustainable development in energy production leads to the best water quality.