Validation of the initial brain metastasis velocity in non-small cell lung cancer at a single cancer center

Purpose The initial brain metastasis velocity (iBMV) was recently reported as a survival predictor after brain metastases (BM) in patients treated by stereotactic radiosurgery. In this study, we validated whether iBMV is a prognostic tool, regardless of treatment modality, in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with metachronous BM. Methods We retrospectively reviewed consecutive 3,792 new lung cancer cases in which no BM was found on magnetic resonance (MR) screening between February 2014 and December 2019, and enrolled 176 NSCLC patients with subsequent BM. Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the date of MR to identify the time from BM to death. Results The median iBMV score was 1.9. We used an iBMV score of 2.0 as the cutoff level, as previously reported. An iBMV score ≥ 2.0 was significantly associated with older age, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and Stage IV (P = 0.04, 0.02, and 0.02, respectively). The median OS was 0.92 years. The median OS for patients with iBMV score ≥ 2.0 and < 2.0 were 0.59 years and 1.33 years, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that an iBMV score ≥ 2.0, ECOG performance status score of 1–3, Stage IV, and non-adenocarcinoma histology were independent poor prognostic factors (hazard ratio (HR), 1.94; P = 0.0001; HR, 1.53; P = 0.04; HR, 1.45; P = 0.04; and HR, 1.14; P = 0.03, respectively). Patients with iBMV scores of < 2.0 were more likely to undergo craniotomy or stereotactic irradiation. Conclusions An iBMV score ≥ 2.0 is an independent predictor of survival in NSCLC patients with metachronous BM, regardless of the treatment modality.