Multi-unit seismic probabilistic risk assessment: A Bayesian network perspective

Jonathan DeJesus Segarra,Michelle Bensi,Mohammad Modarres

Reliability Engineering & System Safety（2023）

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摘要

•Multi-unit seismic PRA elements are rigorously integrated using Bayesian networks.•Bayesian network approach to model MUSPRA estimates NPP site-based risk metrics.•Insights on the relative importance of different correlation types are provided.•Perfect ground motion correlation is not conservative.•Risk assessment case outlined in this paper provides more realistic results.

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关键词

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment,Nuclear power plant,Multi-unit pra,Bayesian network,Correlated (dependent) seismic failures,Spatial variability of ground motion

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