Serum Cu, Zn and IL–1β Levels May Predict Fetal Miscarriage Risk After IVF Cycles: A Nested Case–Control Study

To explore the association between serum-related indicators (levels of inflammatory cytokines and essential trace elements) and miscarriage risk among infertile women undergoing assisted reproductive techniques (ART) on the 14th day after embryo transfer, and to develop and establish a multivariable algorithm model that might predict pregnancy outcome. According to a nested case–control study design, a total of 100 miscarriage cases and 100 live birth controls were included in this study, and women in both groups were infertile and have underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF). Pregnancy tests were performed and serum levels of five essential trace elements (vanadium (V), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), selenium (Se) and molybdenum (Mo)) and five inflammatory cytokines (interleukin–1β (IL–1β), IL–6, IL–8, IL–10 and tumor necrosis factor–α (TNF–α)) of the participants were measured on the 14th day after embryo transfer. The serum levels of five inflammatory cytokines were determined by multiple magnetic bead enzyme immunity analyzer; and the serum concentrations of five elements were determined simultaneously by inductively coupled plasma‒mass spectrometry (ICP ‒ MS). The logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between these serum indices and miscarriage risk among women undergoing ART, and a predictive model of pregnancy outcome based on these indices was established. The levels of IL–10, IL–1β and TNF–α of infertile women in the live birth group were significantly higher than those in the miscarriage group ( p = 0.009, p < 0.001, p = 0.006), and the levels of V, Cu, Zn and Se of infertile women in the live birth group were also significantly higher than those in the miscarriage group (all p < 0.001). Through logistic regression analyses, we found that serum levels of IL–1β, TNF–α, V, Cu, Zn and Se were significantly and negatively associated with miscarriage risk. Different combination prediction models were generated according to the results of logistic regression analyses, and the combination of IL–1β, Cu and Zn had the best prediction performance. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.776, the sensitivity of the model was 60% and the specificity was 84%. In conclusion, the serum-related indicators of women undergoing ART on the 14th day after embryo transfer, including the inflammatory cytokines such as IL–1β and TNF–α and the essential trace metal elements such as V, Cu, Zn and Se, were negatively correlated with miscarriage risk. A multivariate algorithm model to predict pregnancy outcome among women undergoing ART was established, which showed that IL–1β, Cu and Zn might synergistically predict pregnancy outcome.