Delta computed tomography radiomics features-based nomogram predicts long-term efficacy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer

Background and objective No effective preoperative tool is available for predicting the prognosis of advanced gastric cancer (AGC) treated by neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). We aimed to explore the association between change values (“delta”) in the radiomic signatures of computed tomography (CT) (delCT-RS) before and after NAC for AGC and overall survival(OS). Methods and design A total of 132 AGC patients with AGC were studied as a training cohort in our center, and 45 patients from another center were used as an external validation set. A radiomic signatures-clinical-nomogram(RS-CN) was established using delCT-RS and preoperative clinical variables. The prediction performance of RS-CN was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve (AUC values), time-dependent ROC, decision curve analysis(DCA) and C-index. Results Multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that delCT-RS, cT-stage, cN-stage, Lauren-type and the value of variation of carcinoma embryonic antigen (CEA) between NAC were independent risk factors for 3-year OS of AGC. In the training cohort, RS-CN had a good prediction performance for OS (C-Index 0.73) and AUC values were significantly better than those of delCT-RS, ypTNM-stage and tumor regression grade(TRG) (0.827 vs 0.704 vs 0.749 vs 0.571, p < 0.001). DCA and time-dependent ROC of RS-CN were better than those of ypTNM stage, TRG grade and delCT-RS. The prediction performance of the validation set was equivalent to that of the training set. The cut-off (177.2) of RS-CN score was obtained from X-Tile software, a score of > 177.2 was defined as high-risk group(HRG), and scores of ≤ 177.2 were defined as the low-risk group(LRG). The 3-year OS and disease free survival(DFS) of patients in the LRG were significantly better than those in the HRG. Adjuvant chemotherapy(AC) can only significantly improve the 3-year OS and DFS of the LRG. ( p < 0.05). Conclusions Our nomogram based on delCT-RS has good prediction of prognosis before surgery and helps identify patients that are most likely to benefit from AC. It works well in precise and individualised NAC in AGC.