Poleward Shifts and Altered Periodicity in Boreal Bird Irruptions Over Six Decades.

Range boundaries are long-term biogeographic features of species distributions and abundance. However, many species demonstrate dynamic range boundaries, reflecting strong seasonal and annual variability in migratory behavior. As a form of facultative migration, irruptions involve the movement of many individuals outside of their resident range in response to climate variability, resource availability, and demographic processes. Many species have experienced range shifts and altered phenology in response to modern climate change, but spatiotemporal changes in irruption dynamics are less well known. We quantified changes in the geography and periodicity of boreal bird irruptions across eastern North America from 1960-2021. Using data from Audubon's Christmas Bird Count for nine finch species, including several exhibiting recent population declines, we evaluated latitudinal trends in southern range and irruption boundaries and characterized irruption periodicity using spectral wavelet analysis. Six boreal birds exhibited significant northward shifts in their southern range boundaries and three species displayed shifts in their southern irruption boundaries. Irruption periodicity across multiple species was consistent across the 1960s and 1970s, culminating in frequent and synchronized irruptions of multiple species (superflights) during earlier decades. Coherence between species dampened beginning in the early 1980s as superflight periodicity became increasingly unstructured, finally reforming in recent decades, after 2000. Boreal birds are considered important sentinels of the boreal forests, and northward shifts and altered periodicity of irruptions may indicate broad-scale changes in climate- and resource-associated drivers operating across the boreal forests.