Evaluating the Dispersion Strategies Used to Locate Serial Homicide Offenders

Spatial analysis has long been a valuable tool within the criminal investigation process. The aim of the present research is to analyze three dispersion distribution strategies and to build a geographic profile model on the base of set theory that can determine a reference area where the search for the anchor point of a serial homicide offender (SHO) can begin. In the present study, models of circular profiles with variable distance and ellipticals generated for 84 SHOs were tested. In general, the present study found that the elliptical model performed better than the circular models, most likely due to the larger area of the ellipses. When considering police utility purposes, circular models may perform more efficiently. The implications and directions for future research are discussed.