Projection of Potential Habitat Change and Fragmentation of the Endangered Species Aconitum coreanum under Climate Change

Climate change influences various aspects of life on earth including distribution shifts, phenology, and interaction with other organisms. Endangered species respond more sensitively to changes within their limited distribution range. In this study, we analyzed and modeled the current distribution habitat of Aconitum coreanum, which is classified as an endangered species level 2, and further projected potential distribution changes and habitat fragmentation under climate change scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathway, SSP). For species distribution modeling (SDM), current habitat coordinates were collected from the national ecosystem survey and the national survey on the distribution of endangered species, and environmental data were obtained from Worldclim. An ensemble model was used as a SDM for potential habitat analysis, and landscape metrics were used for fragmentation analysis. The potential habitat area was about 15,216 km2 and the distribution included the Yeongseo region of Gangwon-do and some areas of Chungcheongbuk-do in the current climate. Modeling revealed potential habitat decreases of at least 80% and complete disappearance in SSP3-7.0. The number of patches, mean patch area, total core area, and patch cohesion index showed a decreasing trend compared to the current climate. Our results provide fundamental information for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Aconitum coreanum. Adding ecological processes such as dispersal and population dynamics to such an analysis will make it possible to accurately predict the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of endangered species.