The Geriatrics at Risk Score (GeRi-Score) for mortality prediction in geriatric patients with proximal femur fracture – a development and validation study from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma (ATR-DGU)

Summary This study developed an easy-to-use mortality prediction tool, which showed an acceptable discrimination and no significant lack of fit. The GeRi-Score was able to predict mortality and could distinguish between mild, moderate and high risk groups. Therefore, the GeRi-Score might have the potential to distribute the intensity of medical care. Purpose Several mortality-predicting tools for hip fracture patients are available, but all consist of a high number of variables, require a time-consuming evaluation and/or are difficult to calculate. The aim of this study was to develop and validate an easy-to-use score, which depends mostly on routine data. Methods Patients from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma were divided into a development and a validation group. Logistic regression models were used to build a model for in-house mortality and to obtain a score. Candidate models were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC) and likelihood ratio tests. The quality of the model was tested using the area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Results 38,570 patients were included, almost equal distributed to the development and to the validation dataset. The AUC was 0.727 (95% CI 0.711 – 0.742) for the final model, AIC resulted in a significant reduction in deviance compared to the basic model, and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed no significant lack of fit ( p = 0.07). The GeRi-Score predicted an in-house mortality of 5.3% vs. 5.3% observed mortality in the development dataset and 5.4% vs. 5.7% in the validation dataset. The GeRi-Score was able to distinguish between mild, moderate and high risk groups. Conclusions The GeRi-Score is an easy-to-use mortality-predicting tool with an acceptable discrimination and no significant lack of fit. The GeRi-Score might have the potential to distribute the intensity of perioperative medical care in hip fracture surgery and can be used in quality management programs as benchmark tool.