Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea-Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback

We examine the midlatitude jet stream responses to projected Antarctic and Arctic sea-ice loss and global ocean warming in coordinated multi-model experiments from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Antarctic and Arctic sea-ice loss cause an equatorward shift of the winter jet stream in the southern and northern hemisphere, respectively, on average across the models. Models with stronger eddy feedback simulate farther equatorward jet shifts in response to both Antarctic and Arctic sea-ice loss. The models simulate too weak eddy feedback compared to the real world, particularly in the northern hemisphere, resulting in an underestimation of the boreal jet response to Arctic sea-ice loss. More precise estimates of the jet shifts are obtained by using the observed eddy feedback as a constraint and suggest that the equatorward jet shifts in response to Antarctic and Arctic sea-ice loss exceed in magnitude the simulated poleward shifts due to ocean warming.