ProgNet: A Transferable Deep Network for Aircraft Engine Damage Propagation Prognosis under Real Flight Conditions

Machine learning prognosis for condition monitoring of safety-critical systems, such as aircraft engines, continually faces challenges of data unavailability, complexity, and drift. Consequently, this paper overcomes these challenges by introducing adaptive deep transfer learning methodologies, strengthened with robust feature engineering. Initially, data engineering encompassing: (i) principal component analysis (PCA) dimensionality reduction; (ii) feature selection using correlation analysis; (iii) denoising with empirical Bayesian Cauchy prior wavelets; and (iv) feature scaling is used to obtain the required learning representations. Next, an adaptive deep learning model, namely ProgNet, is trained on a source domain with sufficient degradation trajectories generated from PrognosEase, a run-to-fail data generator for health deterioration analysis. Then, ProgNet is transferred to the target domain of obtained degradation features for fine-tuning. The primary goal is to achieve a higher-level generalization while reducing algorithmic complexity, making experiments reproducible on available commercial computers with quad-core microprocessors. ProgNet is tested on the popular New Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (N-CMAPSS) dataset describing real flight scenarios. To the extent we can report, this is the first time that all N-CMAPSS subsets have been fully screened in such an experiment. ProgNet evaluations with numerous metrics, including the well-known CMAPSS scoring function, demonstrate promising performance levels, reaching 234.61 for the entire test set. This is approximately four times better than the results obtained with the compared conventional deep learning models.