Changes in a Bottom-Up Vehicular Emissions Inventory and Its Impact on Air Pollution During COVID-19 Lockdown in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many cities implemented strict lockdown to stop the spread of this new disease. Consequently, it was reported lower levels of air pollution due to less human activity outdoors. The changes were registered using surface monitoring stations or satellite observations. However, modeling those environmental changes has remained a challenge because of our limitations in the emissions estimation and also, for the numerical modeling itself. In this study, the vehicular emissions were estimated for March 2020 in the megacity of Sao Paulo using the Vehicular Emissions INventory model (VEIN). The emissions estimation showed an increment of VOC/NO2 downtown, due to the decrease in circulation of urban transportation and light vehicles. Then, a set of Weather Research and Forecasting models with chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations were performed with different chemical mechanisms and initial conditions. The modeled diurnal cycles represent the variations observed in March 2020 for the periods pre-lockdown, transition, and lockdown. However, it is imperative to include other sources than vehicular to have a local and comprehensive emissions inventory.