Incidence and predictors of metabolic syndrome in Asian-Indians: a 10-year population-based prospective cohort study

Background Metabolic syndrome represents aggregation of risk factors associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Assessing its incidence is an effective way for estimating the future burden of DM and ASCVD and understanding their secular trends and effect of public health measures on halting the evolution of risk factors. The present study aimed to estimate the incidence of metabolic syndrome and its predictors using a population-based cohort. Methods A subset of Chandigarh Urban Diabetes Study cohort ( n = 1023) without diabetes or metabolic syndrome was prospectively evaluated after a mean of 10.7 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as per International Diabetes Federation criteria and diabetes as per American Diabetes Association standards. The incidence was calculated in 1000 person years, and multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the strength of association between incident metabolic syndrome and risk factors. Results In the followed-up individuals ( n = 303), incidence of metabolic syndrome was 32.1 per 1000 person years (95% CI 26.3–38.7 per 1000 person years). Amongst those developing metabolic syndrome, ≥4 components were present in 52% individuals, with low HDL-C being the most common abnormality. Those with metabolic syndrome had a five-time higher risk of diabetes (OR: 4.94; 95% CI: 2.27–9.96; p < 0.001) and a threefold higher risk of hypertension (OR: 2.67; 95% CI: 1.30–5.48; p = 0.006). Conclusion Asian-Indians have a high incidence rate of metabolic syndrome, which is associated with sedentary lifestyle and consequent central obesity.