Bahamian seagrass extent and blue carbon accounting using Earth observation

Seagrasses are among the world’s most productive ecosystems due to their vast ‘blue’ carbon sequestration rates and stocks, yet have a largely untapped potential for climate change mitigation and national climate agendas like the Nationally Determined Contributions of the Paris Agreement. To account for the value of seagrasses for these agendas, spatially explicit high-confidence seagrass ecosystem assessments guided by nationally aggregated data are necessary. Modern Earth Observation advances could provide a scalable technological solution to assess the national extent and blue carbon service of seagrass ecosystems. Here, we developed and applied a scalable Earth Observation framework within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform to account the national extent, blue carbon stock and sequestration rate of seagrass ecosystems across the shallow waters of The Bahamas—113,037 km2. Our geospatial ecosystem extent accounting was based on big multi-temporal data analytics of over 18,000 10-m Sentinel-2 images acquired between 2017-2021, and deep feature engineering of multi-temporal spectral, color, object-based and textural metrics with Random Forests machine learning classification. The extent accounting was trained and validated using a nationwide reference data synthesis based on human-guided image annotation, recent space-borne benthic habitat maps, and field data collections. Bahamian seagrass carbon stocks and sequestration rates were quantified using region-specific in-situ seagrass blue carbon data. The mapped Bahamian seagrass extent covers an area up to 46,792 km2, translating into a carbon storage of 723 Mg C, and a sequestration rate of 123 Mt CO2 annually. This equals up to 68 times the amount of CO2 emitted by The Bahamas in 2018, potentially rendering the country carbon-neutral. The developed accounts fill a vast mapping blank in the global seagrass map—29% of the global seagrass extent—highlighting the necessity of including their blue carbon fluxes into national climate agendas and showcasing the need for more cost-effective conservation and restoration efforts for their meadows. We envisage that the synergy between our scalable Earth Observation technology and near-future nation-specific in-situ observations can and will support spatially-explicit seagrass and ocean ecosystem accounting, accelerating effective policy-making, blue carbon crediting, and relevant financial investments in and beyond The Bahamas.